Oscar prognosticators pay particular attention to the Producers Guild, which selects 10 movies for the year. Aside from the above five films, the producers also nominated Joker, Marriage Story, Knives Out, Little Women and Ford v Ferrari for its annual top prize, the Darryl F. Zanuck Award.
Producers Guild Awards, now in its 31st year, have a history of forecasting the Academy Awards. In 21 out of the last 30 years, the PGA winner has corresponded with the Academy Awards best picture winner, including the last two years: Green Book in 2019, The Shape of Water in 2018.
Notably missing out Wednesday were The Farewell, Bombshell and The Two Popes. Bombshell, which stars Australian actors Nicole Kidman and Margot Robbie, is a strong contender at the SAG awards, which are due to be announced January 20 (AEST). There chances for a best-picture nomination aren’t necessarily over, but seldom does more than one film overlooked by the Producers Guild make it into the Oscar field.
The Directors Guild is also a prominent Oscars predictor. Since 1948, only seven times has the DGA winner not gone on to take the directing Academy Award. Last year, Alfonso Cuaron won at the DGA Awards before winning the Oscar, too.
In its 71-year history, the Directors Guild has only nominated eight women for best director. The last was Greta Gerwig in 2018 for Lady Bird, but she didn’t make the cut this year for Little Women.
While female filmmakers had a historic year at the box office in 2019, they have been largely on the outside this awards season. The Globes didn’t nominate a woman for best director, or select a female-directed movie for its 10 best picture nominees.
The guild’s nominees for best first-time director were more balanced. Up for that award are: Mati Diop (Atlantics), Alma Har’el (Honey Boy), Melina Matsoukas (Queen & Slim), Joe Talbot (Last Black Man in San Francisco) and Tyler Nilson and Michael Schwartz (The Peanut Butter Falcon).
The guild nominations arrived just as Oscar voting was closing, with ballots due at the end of Wednesday. Nominations will be announced Tuesday (AEST).